Project CFB Top Ten: #4 Oregon Ducks

They say birds of a feather flock together, but the Duck that’s missing for Oregon’s 2013 season is former head coach Chip Kelly. Kelly’s departure is probably the single-biggest change to Oregon for the 2013 season since the NCAA sanctions didn’t ruffle many feathers.
With Kelly off to coach in the NFL, the Ducks’ new head coach is former assistant Mark Helfrich. Helfrich, an Oregon native, was the team’s offensive coordinator from 2009 - 2012. Although taking over for Kelly may pose challenges, Helfrich certainly has history on his side. He’s the third consecutive offensive coordinator promoted to head coach for the team and only the fourth head coach in the past 35 years.

Last month, the NCAA Committee on Infractions released its ruling on its two and a half year investigation into Oregon’s recruiting practices. Compromised eligibility? No. Bowl ban? Nope. Loss of 10+ scholarships? Not quite. The Ducks are on probation until January 25, 2016. Between now and then, the program loses one scholarship each year and its recruiting visits have been reduced from 56 to 37. Former coach Chip Kelly was also hit with an 18-month show-cause penalty, which essentially means nothing since he’s no longer coaching in the college ranks.

In 2012, the Ducks went 12-1, 8-1 in the Pac-12 with the sole loss coming from an overtime loss to Stanford that shook up the BCS title race. For 2013, the team retains 16 starters: nine on offense and seven on defense.

Quarterback Marcus Mariota returns under center for the Ducks. Mariota finished the 2012 season passing for 2,677 yards with 32 touchdowns and 6 interceptions. He also put an additional 752 yards on the ground with 5 rushing touchdowns. Offensively, rushing is in the Ducks’ wheelhouse. The team retains backs De'Anthony Thomas and Byron Marshall for the 2013 season.

Defensively, the team lost leaders in players like Dion Jordan and Kiko Alonso but it’s still stacked in depth. Defensive tackles Taylor Hart and Wade Keliikipi, an All-Pac-12 honorable mention recipient, return for their senior seasons.

Schedule wise, the Ducks’ 2013 season is theirs to lose. The two games that could pose threats are the Oct. 26 game against UCLA albeit at home and the Nov. 7 match away against Stanford.

Ultimately, the bar is high for this Oregon team, even without Kelly. If everything on paper comes to fruition, the team could wrap up the season with a Pac-12 championship and a solid run at the BCS title.

- Hayley Elwood
@hayleyelwood
hayley.projectcfb@gmail.com

Does Golden Boy Marcus Mariota Have the Midas Touch to Take the Ducks to Pasadena?

The pundits have spoken and have made predictions about what 2013 will hold for college football, specifically a zero-to-hero quarterback from the west coast, Oregon’s Marcus Mariota.  

Mariota, a redshirt sophomore from Honolulu, Hawaii, was ranked 123 for quarterbacks in the 2011 rankings.  With a 68.5 completion percentage, 32 TDs, and nearly 3000 passing yards, his #6 ranking at the end of the 2012 season (his redshirt freshman season) caused the college football world to remember the name, Mariota.

Entering the 2013 season, Mariota is one of this year’s golden boys.  But does he have what it takes to lead Oregon to victory at the Rose Bowl this January?

Taking a look back at some of the most recent preseason golden boy quarterbacks leaves one to question if this preseason factor is enough to bring the Waterford football home.

2012: Matt Barkley and his USC Trojans were both ranked #1 in the preseason.  The Trojans made the history books that year, but as the first team since the 1964 Ole Miss Rebels to go from #1 in the AP Poll to unranked.  Needless to say, their 7-6 finish was not what they hoped for, nor the pundits predicted.

2011: Pick a golden boy: Terrelle Pryor (Ohio State), Andrew Luck (Stanford), Kellen Moore (Boise State).  The most successful out of that group was Kellen Moore who led Boise State to a 12-1 season.  Luck and the Stanford Cardinals also did well, ending the season 11-2 and tied with Oregon for first place in the North Division.  They did not get to play in the Pac12 Championship game because of their head-to-head loss to Oregon earlier in the season.  But the top ranked preseason QB that year, Terrelle Pryor, led the Buckeyes to their first non-winning season since 1999.

2010: All of the spring and summer talk was about FSU’s Christian Ponder.  He led the Seminoles to a 10-4 season and a spot in the ACC Championship game.  Which, they lost.  

In fact, the last time a preseason top ranked QB took his team all the way was Tim Tebow in 2009.  The time before that?  Matt Leinart with his 2004 Trojans.

The bottom line is that based on these patterns and despite Mariota’s ideal 6’4” 211 lb. build, his razor-sharp accuracy (only six interceptions last year) and uncanny athleticism (nearly 800 yards rushing, five rushing TDs and one reception for a TD), the Ducks will need more in order to win in Pasadena.

Fortunately, the NCAA sanctions that were filed Wednesday against Oregon will have little effect on their 2013 BCS championship dream.

-Lindsay Simpson

@lindsaysimpson

lindsay.projectcfb@gmail.com

Josh's Top Five Pac-12 Quarterbacks

1) Kevin Hogan (Stanford)
2) Marcus Mariota (Oregon)
3) Brett Hundley (UCLA)
4) Keith Price (Washington)
5) Taylor Kelly (Arizona State)

With two of the top 10 teams in the country last season, the Pac 12 had no lack of talent on both sides of the ball. Going into 2012, the conference from top to bottom looks just as good, if not better, than 2012. Perennial powers like Stanford and Oregon both were pleasantly surprised by the performances by their signal callers, Kevin Hogan and Marcus Mariota, and both shined on the biggest stages. Between the two of them, you could make a solid case for either being #1 over the other. However, Hogan once he took over as the starter, was among the most effective quarterbacks in the country. Mariota was equally impressive and ran former coach Chip Kelly's up tempo offense to perfection and the leadership he displayed as a freshmen was extremely impressive.

Brett Hundley, who is coming off a phenomenal 2012 campaign, comes in at 3rd on the list who was a major part of the UCLA turn around under head coach Jim Mora Jr, and may be #1 on this list by seasons end. Washington's Keith Price who had an up and down 2012 season looks to return to his 2011 form that was highlighted by an all everything performance in the 2011 Alamo Bowl in which he went throw for throw (and rush for rush) with reigning Heisman trophy winner Robert Griffin III in a losing effort in one of the best Bowl shootouts this side of the 2005 Rose Bowl. If Hundley and Price play as well as they are capable of the Pac 12 should be even more fun to watch in 2013.

Finishing out the list is the Sun Devils' Taylor Kelly, who is coming off of a solid freshmen season is a potential Pac 12 player of the year candidate rounds out the top 5 and with Kelly, Hundley, Hogan and Mariota all sophomores this season, the play from the quarterback position out west should only get better from here on out.

- Josh Gamez

@itsjoshgamez

josh.projectcfb@gmail.com

Fiesta Bowl: #4 Oregon Ducks vs #5 Kansas State Wildcats

Today I did the simulation for tonight's Fiesta Bowl featuring the #4 ranked Oregon Ducks vs the #5 Kansas State Wildcats.

Oregon is led by freshman quarterback Marcus Mariota, as well as their very talented running back Kenjon Barner. Oregon's offense has been a fast paced high power offense, and both of these players have played key roles.

Kansas State is led by quarterback Heisman finalist Collin Klein, who has had quite an impressive season.

The Ducks are ranked second in the nation for rushing yards per game as well as points scored per game. Kansas State isn't ranked quite as high as Oregon, but is ranked eighth for points scored per game.

Definitely two high power offenses going at it tonight. I believe this very well could be a high scoring, very exciting game that may come down to who has the ball last.

In the XBox 360 simulation on NCAA Football 13, the Ducks won in a close one with the final score being 51-48. Kenjon Barner wound up being the player of the game with over 200 rushing yards and four touchdowns.

The game kicks off tonight at 8:30 on ESPN. Make sure to tune in for a very entertaining matchup.

- Matt Lytle
@mattlytle